In State of Utah v. US, will the Supreme Court allow Utah to sue the federal government to transfer unappropriated federal land to state control?

Started Sep 13, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 13, 2025 02:30PM UTC

In August 2024, Utah filed a motion with the Supreme Court to hear its claim in the first instance (i.e., exercising original jurisdiction) against the federal government that it is illegally controlling approximately 18.5 million acres of land in the state, an area roughly the size of South Carolina (AP, Utah Attorney General, Field and Stream, Cornell - Original Jurisdiction). The Supreme Court will be considered to have allowed Utah to sue upon granting Utah's motion for leave to file a bill of complaint (Supreme Court - Motion for Leave to File Bill of Complaint, Supreme Court Docket - Utah v. US). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its ruling on the motion in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 59%
No 41%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 159
Number of Forecasts 77
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 421
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.191165
2.
-0.191165
3.
-0.191001
4.
-0.186534
5.
-0.147928

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username