In US v. Skrmetti, will the Supreme Court rule that Tennessee's law prohibiting medical treatments related to sexual identity for minors violates the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment?

Started Sep 20, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 18, 2025 02:20PM UTC
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In 2023, the state of Tennessee adopted Senate Bill 1, which, prohibits medical treatments intended to allow “a minor to identify with, or live as, a purported identity inconsistent with the minor’s sex” or to treat “purported discomfort or distress from a discordance between the minor’s sex and asserted identity” (Tennessee General Assembly - Senate Bill 1). Various parties sued to block enforcement, with the district court issuing a preliminary injunction as to part of the law involving hormone therapies and puberty blockers (CNN). The United States intervened (i.e., joined) with the parties seeking to block the bill's enforcement (Cornell). Tennessee appealed, the Sixth Circuit reversed the district court, and the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case (CNN, 6th Circuit Decision, CBS News). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." A ruling that any part of Senate Bill 1 violates the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment will count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 18 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions older than 6 months: 170
Number of Forecasts 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 501
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001067
2.
-0.001067
4.
-0.00092
5.
-0.000919

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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