In Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton, will the Supreme Court rule that Texas House Bill 1181 regarding age verification for websites showing sexual content should be reviewed using strict scrutiny under the First Amendment?

Started Sep 20, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 27, 2025 02:30PM UTC
Challenges

In 2023, the state of Texas adopted Texas House Bill 1181, which, among other things, required age verification for sites and networks that have more than one-third of its content as "sexual material harmful to minors," which the district court granted a preliminary injunction against enforcement of the law, which the Fifth Circuit subsequently reversed (Texas.gov - Texas Civil Practice and Remedies Code §6.129B (House Bill 1181), Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton - 5th Circuit, Ars Technica, Cornell - Rational Basis Test, Cornell - Strict Scrutiny). Various parties appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case (CBS News). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." A ruling that any aspect of the age verification requirement requires strict scrutiny will count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7%
No 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 24
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 76
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.063852
3.
-0.063629
4.
-0.059129
5.
-0.035011

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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