Started Dec 27, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 01, 2017 06:00PM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Will Rex Tillerson be confirmed by the Senate as secretary of state before 30 April 2017?

This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 1 February 2017 (NY Times). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


President-elect Trump has announced ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as his pick for secretary of state. Tillerson's ties to Russia have led to criticism of his nomination by both Republicans and Democrats (Washington Post, Politico)." Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether the DAPA program will be implemented before inauguration day or on Trump's Immigration Ban.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 817
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 1310
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.034
3.
-0.034
4.
-0.034
5.
-0.034

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username