&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Will the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program be implemented prior to inauguration day?

Started May 06, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 20, 2017 07:59AM UTC

This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 20 January 2017. Since Judge Andrew S. Hanen issued a preliminary injunction on 22 June that blocked the implementation of the expanded Deferred Action, the Supreme Court tie at 4-4 has prevented it from being implemented. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Will the 4-4 Supreme Court allow Obama’s deferred action immigration policy to be implemented? The United States Supreme Court is reviewing President Obama's Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program, and is expected to rule on the case in June 2016 (Council on Foreign Relations, SCOTUSblog, CNN). Implementation of the program, which provides deportation relief and work visas for parents of US citizens and lawful residents, was suspended after a Texas Court issued a temporary injunction (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, NY Times, CNN). Inauguration day is 20 January 2017. Recommended Questions Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 319
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1110
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014
3.
-0.013
4.
-0.013
5.
-0.013

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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