In 2022, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) published expansive changes to definitions of "Firearm" and "Frame or Receiver" in its rules as part of an effort to ban "ghost guns" (AP). Various people and groups sued the federal government over the changes and prevailed in this case in both District and Circuit courts (Reason, Fifth Circuit - VanDerStok v. Garland, The Hill, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." The Court must rule against both definitions for the question to close "Yes."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 March 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.