In Garland v. VanDerStok, will the Supreme Court rule that the ATF exceeded its authority when it revised the definitions of "firearm" and "frame or receiver" in 2022 as regulated by the Gun Control Act?

Started Sep 27, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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In 2022, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) published expansive changes to definitions of "Firearm" and "Frame or Receiver" in its rules as part of an effort to ban "ghost guns" (AP). Various people and groups sued the federal government over the changes and prevailed in this case in both District and Circuit courts (Reason, Fifth Circuit - VanDerStok v. Garland, The Hill, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." The Court must rule against both definitions for the question to close "Yes."

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 14.60% -0.70% -3.70% -51.82%
No 85.40% +0.70% +3.70% +51.82%

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