With tensions between Iran and Israel at historic highs, there is worry that Iran is getting closer to becoming a nuclear-armed state (CNN, AP, MSN [Telegraph], Iran International). For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a subcritical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion (National Nuclear Security Administration).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.