Will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P downgrade their long-term credit ratings for Israel to one level above "junk" status or to "junk status" before 9 August 2025?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 09, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Amid continued fighting between Israel and Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, credit rating agencies have cut Israel's credit rating and have warned about the potential for more cuts (US News & World Report, MSN [Reuters], Fitch Ratings, Investopedia). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the "Big Three" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia). One level above "junk" for Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are, respectively, "BBB-," "Baa3," and "BBB-," and any "Non-investment-grade" rating, often referred to as "junk," will count (Fidelity - Bond Ratings). As of 3 October 2024, the long-term credit ratings for Israel were "A" from Fitch, "Baa1" from Moody's, and "A" from S&P.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 9 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 232
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017585
2.
-0.017585
4.
-0.017585

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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