When will the US next report continued unemployment claims reaching or exceeding two million for two consecutive weeks?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 07, 2025 12:30PM UTC

Continuing claims (aka continued claims) for unemployment insurance are reported weekly by the Department of Labor and a useful measure of the health of the labor market (Investopedia - Continuing Claims). The outcome will be determined using Department of Labor data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database and based on the date of reporting, typically Thursdays for the week ending the previous Saturday (FRED). Subsequent revisions will be immaterial (e.g., if a week is reported at 2 million but is subsequently revised to 1.99 million, that date would count as reaching or exceeding two million).

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The question closed "Not before 15 August 2025" with a closing date of 7 August 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 6 December 2024 0%
Between 6 December 2024 and 6 February 2025 0%
Between 7 February 2025 and 10 April 2025 0%
Between 11 April 2025 and 12 June 2025 0%
Between 13 June 2025 and 14 August 2025 9%
Not before 15 August 2025 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 233
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.176789
2.
-0.176789
4.
-0.165866
5.
-0.152662

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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