What will be the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (aka "Core") for April 2025?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (Investopedia - PCE, Federal Reserve - Inflation Target). The "core" PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was running higher than the full PCE in August 2024 (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2025 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy for April 2024 was 2.88506%.

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The question closed "At least 2.300%, but less than 2.600%" with a closing date of 1 May 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.700% 0%
At least 1.700%, but less than 2.000% 0%
At least 2.000%, but less than 2.300% 2%
At least 2.300%, but less than 2.600% 25%
At least 2.600%, but less than 2.900% 62%
At least 2.900%, but less than 3.200% 9%
At least 3.200%, but less than 3.500% 1%
3.500% or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 133
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.071663
2.
-0.056922
3.
-0.051023
4.
-0.050015
5.
-0.04042

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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