How many total Northern Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from January 2025 through June 2025 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
While people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has become a major issue in the 2024 US presidential campaign, illegal crossings of the US border with Canada have also jumped substantially in recent years (NPR, Newsweek). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of January 2025 through June 2025 once data for June 2025 are first reported (CBP, set "Choose Region" to "Northern Land Border"). As of the launch of this question, CBP reported a total of 100,148 encounters in the US northern land border between January 2024 and June 2024.
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The question closed "Fewer than 54,000" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 54,000 | 93% | |
| At least 54,000, but fewer than 72,000 | 8% | |
| At least 72,000, but fewer than 90,000 | 0% | |
| At least 90,000, but fewer than 108,000 | 0% | |
| At least 108,000, but fewer than 126,000 | 0% | |
| At least 126,000, but fewer than 144,000 | 0% | |
| At least 144,000, but fewer than 162,000 | 0% | |
| 162,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 21 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 124 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
