Before 1 January 2026, will a non-OPEC member state that is a party to OPEC's Declaration of Cooperation (aka OPEC+) publicly announce or acknowledge that it has or will cease to be a party to OPEC+?

Started Oct 25, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

In 2016, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) formed a cooperative agreement with various oil-producing nations to further coordinate global production (Vox, OPEC - Declaration of Cooperation). As of the launch of this question, the members of OPEC+ were Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, Sudan, and South Sudan (OPEC - September 2024 Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5-7 on page 60 of the file). A party to OPEC+ publicly announcing that it will cease to be a party to OPEC+ in order to become an OPEC member state will not count. The last OPEC+ member to leave the agreement was Equatorial Guinea, which joined OPEC as a member state in 2017 (and would not have counted) (OPEC - Declaration of Cooperation). The date the member state ceases to be a party to OPEC+ is immaterial so long as a specific date that the departure is to take effect is within a year and a day of the announcement. For the purposes of this question, any change in status for Brazil is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 42.20% +2.70% +3.70%
No 57.80% -2.70% -3.70%

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