Will Iran's national military forces attempt to execute a military strike within the territory, airspace, or territorial waters of Israel before 1 May 2025?

Started Oct 29, 2024 04:30PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

After a pair of military exchanges between Iran and Israel in April and October 2024, concerns over future military engagements persist (AP, Al Jazeera, BBC). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike will be immaterial so long as either 1) the weapon detonates or discharges on or over Israeli territory, or 2) the weapon is intercepted or destroyed while en route to Israeli territory. A cyberattack alone will not count. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. Actions not executed by Iran's national military forces will not count (e.g., rocket attacks by Hezbollah Al Jazeera). Public acknowledgment is not required, and the default evidentiary standard will be used, that being credible, open-source media reporting.

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NOTE 1 November 2024: Iranian proxy forces (e.g., Hezbollah, Kataib Hezbollah) in and of themselves are not considered part of Iranian national military forces.


Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 81.18% -0.32% +11.51%
No 18.82% +0.32% -11.51%

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