In Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services, will the Supreme Court rule that Marlean Ames must show "background circumstances to support the suspicion that the defendant is that unusual employer who discriminates against the majority" in her employment claims of discrimination based on sexual orientation and sex?

Started Nov 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 05, 2025 02:00PM UTC
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Ames sued her employer, the Ohio Department of Youth Services, after being demoted and fired from her job, claiming she was discriminated against because she is a heterosexual (Ogletree Deakins, JD Supra). The district court granted summary judgment for the department and the Sixth Circuit affirmed, stating that, under circuit precedent, Ames failed to show "background circumstances" that would justify a claim made by a member of a majority class (Sixth Circuit - Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 12%
No 89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 170
Number of Forecasts 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 500
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.178391
2.
-0.172674
3.
-0.166192
4.
-0.15897
5.
-0.078142

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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