tabhuth_ asks:

Which US presidential candidate will win Iowa?

Started Nov 03, 2024 03:50AM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Conflicting polls in Iowa in the days before the 2024 presidential election have put a spotlight on a state that Donald Trump twice won (CNN, The Hill). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "The Republican Party candidate" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Democratic Party candidate 36%
The Republican Party candidate 64%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133
Number of Forecasts 129
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 305
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.1376
2.
-0.1376
3.
-0.1374
4.
-0.1374
5.
-0.1374

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username