The Economist asks:

What will be China's estimated annual GDP growth rate for 2025, according to the IMF?

Started Nov 20, 2024 11:00AM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Ongoing trouble in China's real estate sector and related debt fears are expected to remain as headwinds for the country's economic growth (Economist, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 and the outcome determined using International Monetary Fund (IMF) real GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2025, which is expected in April 2025. At the IMF website (IMF - World Economic Outlook Databases), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database," then click "By Countries." In the reporting tool page, 1) select "EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ASIA," 2) click the "CLEAR ALL" button, then "China," then click "CONTINUE," 3) select "Gross domestic product, constant prices PERCENT CHANGE," then click "CONTINUE," 4) set the "Start Year" and "End Year" as you wish, then press the "PREPARE REPORT" button. China's annual GDP growth rate for 2025 was estimated to be 4.484% according to the October 2024 database (IMF - World Economic Outlook Database October 2024).

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The question closed "At least 3.80%, but less than 4.40%" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.60% 1%
At least 2.60%, but less than 3.20% 3%
At least 3.20%, but less than 3.80% 7%
At least 3.80%, but less than 4.40% 26%
At least 4.40%, but less than 5.00% 55%
At least 5.00%, but less than 5.60% 6%
5.60% or higher 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 240
Average for questions older than 6 months: 176
Number of Forecasts 632
Average for questions older than 6 months: 516
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.14978
2.
-0.14605
3.
-0.137848
4.
-0.13098
5.
-0.130405

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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