The Economist asks:
What will be the UK real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2025?
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The UK economy is expected to see modest growth in 2025, but headwinds remain (Economist, BBC, MSN [Reuters], US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using "Quarter on Quarter growth" data for the second quarter of 2025 as provided by the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) once its "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2025" release is published, scheduled for 14 August 2025 (ONS - Gross Domestic Product, ONS - Q2 2025 Scheduled Release). As of the launch of this question, the UK real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 was -0.3%.
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The question closed "Up by more than 0.0%, but no more than 1.0%" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Down by more than 1.0% | 2% | |
| Down by at least 0.0%, but no more than 1.0% | 22% | |
| Up by more than 0.0%, but no more than 1.0% | 67% | |
| Up by more than 1.0%, but no more than 2.0% | 8% | |
| Up by more than 2.0%, but no more than 3.0% | 1% | |
| Up by more than 3.0% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 174 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 636 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
