sigis asks:

Will Călin Georgescu win the 2024 Romanian presidential election runoff?

Started Dec 02, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 11, 2025 05:30PM UTC

After Romania's Constitutional Court validated the results of the first round of the 2024 presidential election held on 24 November 2024, the runoff between pro-Moscow independent Călin Georgescu and the liberal Save Romania Union party candidate Elena Lasconi is set for 8 December 2024 (AP, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Politico).

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NOTE 6 December 2024: Due to the ruling of Romania's Constitutional Court today, the runoff election scheduled for 8 December 2024 will not take place and the election will be "entirely redone." This question will remain open until a new runoff for president is held. However, if Georgescu fails to reach a new runoff election or is barred from running in the new election, the question will close "No." The end date has also been extended, and a replacement election held in 2024 will be considered the 2024 election.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 March 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 11%
No 89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 151
Number of Forecasts 182
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 402
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.044154
3.
-0.04302
4.
-0.041707
5.
-0.041707

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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