Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 1 May 2025, will the US give written notification that it is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement regarding climate change?
Closed Jan 27, 2025 10:00PM UTC
During Donald Trump's first term, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, which President Biden reversed, and Trump has stated he will withdraw again during the 2024 US presidential campaign (Politico, US News & World Report, Department of State). Withdrawal procedures are govered by Article 28 of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC - Paris Agreement). Trump announced the US' withdrawal from the agreement in June 2017 (BBC).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 27 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | |
| No | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 170 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 74 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 501 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
