When will the United States reopen its embassy in Damascus, Syria?

Started Dec 13, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 13, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The US closed its embassy in Damascus in February 2012 when violence erupted marking the beginning of the Syrian civil war, and the future of US relations with a new Syrian government remains up in the air as the US has reportedly taken steps to secure its embassy building there (Scripps News, US Embassy in Syria, Atlantic Council). The question will close upon the actual reopening of the embassy, not merely an announced plan for reopening. The reopening of the embassy need not be in the previous embassy building, but it must be located in Damascus or the Damascus Countryside Governorate to count. A reopening with limited services will count so long as US diplomatic personnel are present.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 16 December 2024: US diplomatic recognition of a Syrian government is immaterial to this question.

NOTE 17 December 2024: The exact identity of the entity that the US may recognize as the government of Syria in relation to that reopening is immaterial, and the opening of a facility for consular services that the US does not characterize as its embassy will not count.


The question closed "Not before 13 June 2025" with a closing date of 13 June 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 13 January 2025 0%
Between 13 January 2025 and 12 March 2025 0%
Between 13 March 2025 and 12 June 2025 2%
Not before 13 June 2025 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 308
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.029074
2.
-0.023266
3.
-0.021761
4.
-0.02121
5.
-0.020323

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username