When will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge that all Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces have left the UNDOF Zone in the Golan Heights?

Started Dec 20, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 21, 2025 07:01AM UTC

In the aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Israeli forces moved into the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) Zone created between Syria and Israel after the 1973 Yom Kippur War (France24, UN, Anadolu Agency, UNDOF). Israel must publicly announce or acknowledge that all IDF ground forces have left the whole of the UNDOF Zone to close the question. "All IDF ground forces" includes all individuals who are under IDF command, excluding those captured, missing, or remaining in the zone for reasons other than IDF deployment.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Not before 21 September 2025" with a closing date of 21 September 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 21 March 2025 0%
Between 21 March 2025 and 20 June 2025 0%
Between 21 June 2025 and 20 September 2025 0%
Not before 21 September 2025 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 208
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000278
2.
-0.000278
3.
-0.000278
4.
-0.000278
5.
-0.000278

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username