When will the Arab League officially recognize a new government of Syria?

Started Dec 20, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 20, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Arab states have announced their intent to help Syria transition to a new government after the fall of the Assad regime (Arab League, AP, Iraq Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Past examples of the Arab League recognizing a member state government include Iraq in 2003 and the Assad regime's readmission in 2023 (Taipei Times, Guardian).

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The question closed "Not before 20 December 2025" with a closing date of 20 December 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 20 April 2025 0%
Between 20 April 2025 and 19 August 2025 1%
Between 20 August 2025 and 19 December 2025 11%
Not before 20 December 2025 88%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 328
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.616976
2.
-0.597585
3.
-0.410576
4.
-0.402094
5.
-0.380121

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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