What will be the European Central Bank's (ECB's) most recently announced "Deposit facility" interest rate as of 30 January 2025?

Started Dec 20, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 30, 2025 08:01AM UTC

After the ECB cut its deposit facility rate for the fourth time in 2024 in December, market observers are speculating if and how far the ECB may cut at its January meeting (CNBC, Yahoo [Reuters]). As of the launch of this question, the Governing Council of the ECB's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 30 January 2025, and its most recently announced Deposit facility rate was 3.00% (ECB - Meeting Calendar, ECB - Key interest rates). The date the change will take effect is immaterial (ECB interest rate changes generally do not take effect for approximately a week from an announced change).

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The question closed "At least 2.75%, but less than 3.00%" with a closing date of 30 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 2.50% 1%
At least 2.50%, but less than 2.75% 9%
At least 2.75%, but less than 3.00% 82%
At least 3.00%, but less than 3.25% 7%
3.25% or higher 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 129
Number of Forecasts 34
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 296
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.042144
2.
-0.030566
3.
-0.010801
4.
-0.005095
5.
-0.004091

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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