Will former Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio receive a presidential pardon or other clemency for convictions related to the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots before 1 March 2025?
Closed Jan 21, 2025 12:30AM UTC
Enrique Tarrio, former leader of the "Proud Boys" who was convicted on criminal charges including seditious conspiracy for his actions related to the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots, is currently serving a decades-long prison sentence (Politico, NBC News, Department of Justice). Donald Trump has discussed pardoning at least some defendants convicted on Capitol riot-related charges, but who all may be included in grants of clemency and the scope of that clemency remains to be seen (CNN, The Hill). A pardon completely absolves a person of criminal liability, while commutation and reprieve are lesser forms of reducing the sentence or punishment for a criminal act or conviction (Cornell - Clemency, Cornell - Pardon, Cornell - Commutation, Cornell - Reprieve). Clemency less than a full pardon on some, but not all, criminal convictions will count. Whether Tarrio refuses to accept any clemency is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots" with a closing date of 20 January 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots | 64% | |
Yes, but some form of clemency less than a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots | 27% | |
No | 9% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 47 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 129 | |
Number of Forecasts | 90 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 296 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |