Will Jacob Chansley (aka the "QAnon Shaman") receive a presidential pardon or other clemency for convictions related to the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots before 1 March 2025?

Started Dec 27, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 21, 2025 12:30AM UTC
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Jacob Chansley, popularly known as the "QAnon Shaman" for his actions at the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots, has served his prison sentence but remains under supervised release as of December 2024 (NPR, CNN, Department of Justice). Donald Trump has discussed pardoning at least some defendants convicted on Capitol riot-related charges, but who all may be included in grants of clemency and the scope of that clemency remains to be seen (CNN, The Hill, NBC Miami). A pardon completely absolves a person of criminal liability, while commutation and reprieve are lesser forms of reducing the sentence or punishment for a criminal act or conviction (Cornell - Clemency, Cornell - Pardon, Cornell - Commutation, Cornell - Reprieve). Clemency less than a full pardon on some, but not all, criminal convictions will count. Whether Chansley refuses to accept any clemency is immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots" with a closing date of 20 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots 61%
Yes, but some form of clemency less than a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots 13%
No 26%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 129
Number of Forecasts 62
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 296
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.263525
3.
-0.263467
4.
-0.262692
5.
-0.260712

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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