Will Jacob Chansley (aka the "QAnon Shaman") receive a presidential pardon or other clemency for convictions related to the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots before 1 March 2025?
Closed Jan 21, 2025 12:30AM UTC
Jacob Chansley, popularly known as the "QAnon Shaman" for his actions at the 6 January 2021 Capitol riots, has served his prison sentence but remains under supervised release as of December 2024 (NPR, CNN, Department of Justice). Donald Trump has discussed pardoning at least some defendants convicted on Capitol riot-related charges, but who all may be included in grants of clemency and the scope of that clemency remains to be seen (CNN, The Hill, NBC Miami). A pardon completely absolves a person of criminal liability, while commutation and reprieve are lesser forms of reducing the sentence or punishment for a criminal act or conviction (Cornell - Clemency, Cornell - Pardon, Cornell - Commutation, Cornell - Reprieve). Clemency less than a full pardon on some, but not all, criminal convictions will count. Whether Chansley refuses to accept any clemency is immaterial.
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The question closed "Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots" with a closing date of 20 January 2025.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes, a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots | 61% | |
Yes, but some form of clemency less than a full pardon on all criminal convictions related to Capitol riots | 13% | |
No | 26% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 30 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 129 | |
Number of Forecasts | 62 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 296 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |