The Economist asks:
How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from June 2025 through August 2025 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?
Closed Sep 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Cracking down on illegal immigration was a cornerstone of Donald Trump's 2024 election campaign, and his named "border czar" was already discussing plans for a major shift in US policy (Economist, NBC News, Arizona Mirror). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of June 2025 through August 2025 once data for August 2025 are first reported (CBP). As of the launch of this question, CBP reported a total of 341,988 encounters in the US southwest between June 2024 and August 2024.
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The question closed "Fewer than 90,000" with a closing date of 1 September 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 90,000 | 85% | |
| At least 90,000, but fewer than 180,000 | 3% | |
| At least 180,000, but fewer than 270,000 | 4% | |
| At least 270,000, but fewer than 360,000 | 3% | |
| At least 360,000, but fewer than 450,000 | 2% | |
| At least 450,000, but fewer than 540,000 | 3% | |
| At least 540,000, but fewer than 630,000 | 0% | |
| 630,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 155 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 619 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
