Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
After coalition talks by the leader of the Austrian People's Party (Österreichische Volkspartei, or ÖVP) collapsed, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen has tasked the head of the Freedom Party of Austria (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, or FPÖ), Herbert Kickl, to try and form a new government (CNN, Deutsche Welle). The FPÖ was originally passed over after the 2024 elections, despite having won the most seats (Guardian, BBC). The question will close as of the publication date of an ordinance ("Verordnung," sometimes translated as "regulation") in Austria's Federal Law Gazette setting the date for new elections (e.g., Federal Law Gazette - 2019 Election Day [in German], Federal Law Gazette - 2017 Election Day [in German]). The date set for new parliamentary elections is immaterial, but a date must be set to count.
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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2026" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 July 2025 | 2% | |
| Between 1 July 2025 and 31 December 2025 | 10% | |
| Not before 1 January 2026 | 88% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 174 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |