CJH and Kinnaj ask:

When will new parliamentary elections be called in Austria?

Started Jan 10, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

After coalition talks by the leader of the Austrian People's Party (Österreichische Volkspartei, or ÖVP) collapsed, Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen has tasked the head of the Freedom Party of Austria (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, or FPÖ), Herbert Kickl, to try and form a new government (CNN, Deutsche Welle). The FPÖ was originally passed over after the 2024 elections, despite having won the most seats (Guardian, BBC). The question will close as of the publication date of an ordinance ("Verordnung," sometimes translated as "regulation") in Austria's Federal Law Gazette setting the date for new elections (e.g., Federal Law Gazette - 2019 Election Day [in German], Federal Law Gazette - 2017 Election Day [in German]). The date set for new parliamentary elections is immaterial, but a date must be set to count.

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The question closed "Not before 1 January 2026" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 July 2025 2%
Between 1 July 2025 and 31 December 2025 10%
Not before 1 January 2026 88%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 174
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.049479
2.
-0.045206
3.
-0.041664
4.
-0.040495
5.
-0.033499

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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