How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2025?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Total arrivals" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2023, a total of 270,180 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Cyprus, Greece, and Spain (including the Canary Islands)).
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The question closed "At least 150,000, but fewer than 250,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 50,000 | 2% | |
| At least 50,000, but fewer than 100,000 | 3% | |
| At least 100,000, but fewer than 150,000 | 10% | |
| At least 150,000, but fewer than 250,000 | 77% | |
| At least 250,000, but fewer than 400,000 | 7% | |
| At least 400,000, but fewer than 600,000 | 1% | |
| 600,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 175 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
