What will US average weekly gasoline demand be in 2025 as compared to 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA)?

Started Jan 10, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 27, 2025 03:00PM UTC

Gasoline demand in the US increased slightly in 2024 as compared to the previous year, but electric vehicle policy changes sought by Donald Trump may impact demand for internal combustion engine vehicles in 2025 (MSN [Wall Street Journal], Auto Blog, Inside EVs). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using "Weekly U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline" data as reported by the EIA once information for each week with an end date in calendar 2025 is released (EIA, EIA Glossary - Product Supplied). As of the launch of this question, the average of all weekly averages with end dates in calendar 2024 was 8,839.750 thousand barrels per day. In 2023, the average was 8,810.558, which made for a 0.33% increase in 2024 versus 2023.

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The question closed "Down by more than 0.00% but at most 1.50%" with a closing date of 27 December 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down by more than 3.00% 1%
Down by more than 1.50%, but at most 3.00% 1%
Down by more than 0.00% but at most 1.50% 63%
Up by at least 0.00%, but less than 1.50% 34%
Up by at least 1.50%, but less than 3.00% 1%
Up by 3.00% or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 107
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.207993
2.
-0.196895
3.
-0.171443
4.
-0.060268
5.
-0.037848

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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