When will the Palisades Fire in California be 100% contained?
Closed Feb 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
The Palisades Fire in Los Angeles County has already destroyed thousands of homes and 17% contained as of 6:00AM PT on 13 January 2025 (City of Malibu - Palisades Fire, Cal Fire - Palisades Fire Update 13 January 2025, Yahoo [Fox 5 San Diego]). The outcome will be determined using information reported by Cal Fire (CA Fire - Palisades Fire).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 27 January 2025 and 2 February 2025" with a closing date of 31 January 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 20 January 2025 | 0% | |
Between 20 January 2025 and 26 January 2025 | 0% | |
Between 27 January 2025 and 2 February 2025 | 73% | |
Between 3 February 2025 and 9 February 2025 | 22% | |
Between 10 February 2025 and 16 February 2025 | 3% | |
Between 17 February 2025 and 23 February 2025 | 1% | |
Not before 24 February 2025 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 52 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 129 | |
Number of Forecasts | 286 |
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 296 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |