When will the Palisades Fire in California be 100% contained?

Started Jan 13, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
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The Palisades Fire in Los Angeles County has already destroyed thousands of homes and 17% contained as of 6:00AM PT on 13 January 2025 (City of Malibu - Palisades Fire, Cal Fire - Palisades Fire Update 13 January 2025, Yahoo [Fox 5 San Diego]). The outcome will be determined using information reported by Cal Fire (CA Fire - Palisades Fire).

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The question closed "Between 27 January 2025 and 2 February 2025" with a closing date of 31 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 20 January 2025 0%
Between 20 January 2025 and 26 January 2025 0%
Between 27 January 2025 and 2 February 2025 73%
Between 3 February 2025 and 9 February 2025 22%
Between 10 February 2025 and 16 February 2025 3%
Between 17 February 2025 and 23 February 2025 1%
Not before 24 February 2025 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 129
Number of Forecasts 286
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 296
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.089211
2.
-0.06615
3.
-0.063929
4.
-0.060909
5.
-0.060907

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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