J-Z asks:
What percentage of all actively managed domestic US equity funds will underperform the S&P Composite 1500 index for the first half of 2025?
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
S&P Indices versus Active (SPIVA) scorecards are reports published by S&P Global that track the relative performance of actively managed funds as compared to S&P indices (S&P Global, Investopedia - Active Management). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using the S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA Global Scorecard, expected late in the third quarter of 2025. For the first half of 2024, 76.56% of all domestic US equity funds underperformed the S&P Composite 1500 index (SPIVA Global Scorecard Mid-Year 2024, see "All Domestic Funds" under "U.S. Equities" on page 19).
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The question closed "At least 50.00%, but less than 65.00%" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 35.00% | 1% | |
| At least 35.00%, but less than 50.00% | 3% | |
| At least 50.00%, but less than 65.00% | 17% | |
| At least 65.00%, but less than 80.00% | 53% | |
| 80.00% or more | 26% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 27 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 92 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |