Will Republika Srpska declare independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina before 1 January 2026?

Started Jan 17, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

Leaders of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority political unit of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have threatened secession over the years as tensions within the country's political structure continue (Sofia News Agency, European External Action Service, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio France Internationale). The exact nature of a declaration of independence is immaterial so long as an official governmental organ of Republika Srpska makes the declaration that it is free and independent of Bosnia and Herzegovina. International recognition will be immaterial, and any claims related to the Brčko District will be immaterial (Guardian).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 85
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 259
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.019885
2.
-0.019758
3.
-0.019564
4.
-0.019503
5.
-0.0195

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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