Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state or as otherwise not a part of the Republic of Moldova before 22 December 2025?
Started
Jan 24, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 22, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Dec 22, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, concerns continue that Russia may foment unrest in Moldova by recognizing Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (Britannica - Transnistria, Politico, Moldpres, Al Jazeera, European Council on Foreign Relations).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 22 December 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | |
| No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 84 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 271 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
