In Becerra v. Braidwood Management, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that the structure of the US Preventive Services Task Force violates the Constitution's Appointments Clause?

Started Jan 31, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 27, 2025 02:30PM UTC
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The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) was tasked under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to issue recommendations for preventative care services that most insurers must cover by law (USPSTF). Various private employers sued, claiming that the structure of the USPSTF was unconstitutional under the Appointments Clause of the US Constitution (Kaiser Family Foundation). The Fifth Circuit affirmed the trial court's decision as to the Appointments Clause, but ordered further proceedings regarding another decision the trial court made to vacate all of the pertinent work of the USPSTF (Fifth Circuit Decision, CNN). The Supreme Court decided to hear an appeal from the government in January 2025 (SCOTUSblog, Oyez). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides these cases without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Please note that, as Xavier Becerra is no longer the Secretary of Health and Human Services, his name may be replaced in future filings and reports.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 27 June 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 42%
No 58%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 50
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.605356
2.
-0.576155
3.
-0.521223
4.
-0.255475
5.
-0.221529

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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