When will the Kostyantynivka City Registry Office building (Костянтинівський міський відділ РАЦС) in Kostyantynivka, Ukraine, be under Russian control, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
Closed Oct 12, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Russia has continued to make incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast, and capturing the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka may be a goal (Espreso, ISW - Russian Campaign Assessment 7 January 2025). Kostyantynivka is sometimes transliterated as "Kostiantynivka." The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is "Vulytsya Teatralʹna, 5, Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 85105", to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The site as displayed by ISW will control the resolution. "Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine," "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours," and "Assessed Russian Control" will count, but "Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine" will not count and "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" is immaterial. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed is immaterial.
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The question closed "Not before 12 October 2025" with a closing date of 12 October 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 9 April 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 9 April 2025 and 9 June 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 10 June 2025 and 10 August 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 11 August 2025 and 11 October 2025 | 0% | |
| Not before 12 October 2025 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 55 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 302 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |