When will the Kostyantynivka City Registry Office building (Костянтинівський міський відділ РАЦС) in Kostyantynivka, Ukraine, be under Russian control, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Started Feb 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 12, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Russia has continued to make incremental advances in Donetsk Oblast, and capturing the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka may be a goal (Espreso, ISW - Russian Campaign Assessment 7 January 2025). Kostyantynivka is sometimes transliterated as "Kostiantynivka." The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is "Vulytsya Teatralʹna, 5, Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 85105", to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The site as displayed by ISW will control the resolution. "Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine," "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours," and "Assessed Russian Control" will count, but "Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine" will not count and "Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare" is immaterial. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed is immaterial.

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The question closed "Not before 12 October 2025" with a closing date of 12 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 9 April 2025 0%
Between 9 April 2025 and 9 June 2025 0%
Between 10 June 2025 and 10 August 2025 0%
Between 11 August 2025 and 11 October 2025 0%
Not before 12 October 2025 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 302
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.076458
3.
-0.074601
4.
-0.072439
5.
-0.061754

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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