Foxes ask:

Before 23 July 2025, will the proponent of an initiative that would have Californians vote on whether the state should become an independent country collect enough signatures for the measure to become eligible for the ballot, according to the California Secretary of State?

Started Feb 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 23, 2025 07:01AM UTC

On 23 January 2025, the California Secretary of State announced that "the proponent of a new initiative" that would ask Californians if the state should leave the US and become a free and independent country "was cleared to begin collecting petition signatures" from registered voters (California Secretary of State - Press Release 23 January 2025, KTLA). The question will be suspended on 22 July 2025 if still open and the outcome determined by reports and announcements from the California Secretary of State. The sufficiency and eligibility of the signatures must be confirmed by the California Secretary of State to count. If the California Secretary of State announces an extension of the deadline to collect signatures beyond 22 July 2025, the question will close "No" (e.g., California Secretary of State).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 15.06% -0.05% -1.23% -3.74%
No 84.94% +0.05% +1.23% +3.74%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username