Foxes ask:
Before 23 July 2025, will the proponent of an initiative that would have Californians vote on whether the state should become an independent country collect enough signatures for the measure to become eligible for the ballot, according to the California Secretary of State?
Closed Jul 23, 2025 07:01AM UTC
On 23 January 2025, the California Secretary of State announced that "the proponent of a new initiative" that would ask Californians if the state should leave the US and become a free and independent country "was cleared to begin collecting petition signatures" from registered voters (California Secretary of State - Press Release 23 January 2025, KTLA). The question will be suspended on 22 July 2025 if still open and the outcome determined by reports and announcements from the California Secretary of State. The sufficiency and eligibility of the signatures must be confirmed by the California Secretary of State to count. If the California Secretary of State announces an extension of the deadline to collect signatures beyond 22 July 2025, the question will close "No" (e.g., California Secretary of State).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 23 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 160 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
