Before 18 October 2025, will a US federal court issue declaratory and/or injunctive relief preventing the City of Chicago from enforcing any part of its "Welcoming City Ordinance?"

Started Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 18, 2025 07:01AM UTC

On 6 February 2025, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) sued the City of Chicago, Cook County, Illinois, and the State of Illinois to prevent them from enforcing their respective "sanctuary" policies that bar their cooperation with federal immigration enforcement (AP, ABC 7 Chicago, Court Listener - US v. Illinois). Specific to Chicago, the DOJ sued to prevent enforcement of its "Welcoming City Ordinance" (Chicago Municipal Code 2-173). A preliminary or permanent injunction preventing enforcement will count, as will a declaratory judgment that the law is illegal and/or unconstitutional (Cornell - Declaratory Judgment, Cornell - Injunctive Relief). A settlement between the parties that would prevent enforcement of any part of its Welcoming City Ordinance will count, and a judgment or injunction preventing New York from enforcing part, but not necessarily all, of the law will count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 18 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5%
No 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 103
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.7947
2.
-0.745208
3.
-0.609273
4.
-0.461265
5.
-0.312684

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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