Ukrainian forces invaded Russia's Kursk region in August 2024 and remain there as of 20 February 2025 (Newsweek, BBC, ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 18 February 2025). For the purposes of this question, "regular" ground armed forces would include military forces not considered Special Forces (Britannica - Special Forces). Whether Ukrainian regular forces have left Russia will be determined using open-source reporting and information published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). An official announcement from the Ukrainian government that its regular forces have left Russia will count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Not before 20 November 2025" with a closing date of 20 November 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.