At close of business on 1 May 2025, will the most recently announced Bank of Japan (BOJ) "uncollateralized overnight call [interest] rate" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 19 March 2025?

Started Feb 21, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing May 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

As of the launch of this question, the BOJ's April/May 2025 monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 30 April to 1 May 2025, and its most recently announced uncollateralized overnight call rate was "around 0.5 percent" (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy January 2025 (24 January 2025), Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule, see links under "Date of MPM"). If the BOJ announces a range, the question will close using the midpoint of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 0.0% and 0.1% would close based on 0.05%). Qualified statements on the interest rate (e.g., "around 0.25%") will count as though the statement were unqualified (i.e., "around 0.25%" will be treated simply as "0.25%"). Please note that in most 2024 statements, the BOJ explicitly referred to the "uncollateralized overnight call rate." However, this was referred to as the "short-term policy interest rate" as recently as its statement dated 23 January 2024 (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy January 2024). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower 4.10% -0.50% -2.90% -0.40%
Same 75.10% +1.30% +11.60% +15.70%
Higher 20.80% -0.80% -8.70% -15.30%

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