What will be the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls in the second quarter of 2025, according to ADP?
Closed Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The US private sector has continued to create jobs into 2025 (CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data from the firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once data for June 2025 are first reported (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Change, Persons"). As of the launch of this question, the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls in the second quarter of 2024 was 137,666.7 [(113,000+164,000+136,000)/3].
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The question closed "At least 0, but lower than 50,000" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than -50,000 | 1% | |
| At least -50,000, but lower than 0 | 2% | |
| At least 0, but lower than 50,000 | 46% | |
| At least 50,000, but lower than 100,000 | 37% | |
| At least 100,000, but lower than 150,000 | 13% | |
| At least 150,000, but lower than 200,000 | 1% | |
| At least 200,000, but lower than 250,000 | 0% | |
| 250,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 46 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 146 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 171 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 392 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
