Will Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 1 January 2026?

Started Feb 28, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

As talks between the US and Russia continue without Ukraine about the future of Russia's conflict in the country, President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that he is ready to resign in exchange for Ukraine's membership in NATO (Politico.eu, CNN, CBS News). For the purposes of this question, the expiration of Zelensky's term of office as president did not count as ceasing so long as it is extended by law (Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [in Ukrainian] see Article 11(3), Council of Europe). Claims of succession by someone not recognized as the president of Ukraine by the European Union while Zelensky asserts that he is still the president will not count. Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible, open-source media reporting.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 271
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 887
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.069452
3.
-0.069252
4.
-0.067446
5.
-0.064632

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username