Will Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 1 January 2026?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
As talks between the US and Russia continue without Ukraine about the future of Russia's conflict in the country, President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that he is ready to resign in exchange for Ukraine's membership in NATO (Politico.eu, CNN, CBS News). For the purposes of this question, the expiration of Zelensky's term of office as president did not count as ceasing so long as it is extended by law (Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [in Ukrainian] see Article 11(3), Council of Europe). Claims of succession by someone not recognized as the president of Ukraine by the European Union while Zelensky asserts that he is still the president will not count. Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible, open-source media reporting.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | |
| No | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 271 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 887 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |