 The Economist asks
Will anyone other than Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi be proclaimed caliph before 1 October 2017?
Started
Feb 14, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
A global coalition of forces continues to hammer at the Islamic State and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (Economist, Reuters).
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No one else was proclaimed caliph. This question closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether the US will endorse a peace plan which allows Bashar al Assad to remain in power or on how many Syrian Refugees will the UNHCR register in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt and North Africa before 1 January 2017
No one else was proclaimed caliph. This question closed as "No," with and end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, while Baghdadi is alive | 0% | |
| Yes, after Baghdadi's death | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 498 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1448 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
