The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed) conducts the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) each month to measure US consumer expectations on a variety of matters, including commodity prices, unemployment, and credit access (NY Fed). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the NY Fed (NY Fed - Unemployment Expectations). In the event of ambiguity due to rounding on the chart, downloaded data will be used for resolution (click "DOWNLOADS" button for options, click "Chart Data [EXCEL]," and see the “Unemployment Expectations” tab). In November 2024, the average probability that the unemployment rate will be higher in one year was 35.0%.

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