When will Pete Hegseth cease to be the US secretary of defense?

Started Mar 26, 2025 06:30PM UTC
Closed Sep 26, 2025 07:01AM UTC

US national security officials were on the defensive in late March 2025 after Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, revealed that he was mistakenly included on a group chat, including Hegseth, using the encrypted messaging service Signal regarding US strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen earlier in the month (CNN, USA Today, NBC News).

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The question closed "Not before 26 September 2025" with a closing date of 26 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 26 April 2025 0%
Between 26 April 2025 and 25 June 2025 0%
Between 26 June 2025 and 25 September 2025 1%
Not before 26 September 2025 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 144
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 586
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.034393
2.
-0.034393
4.
-0.034356
5.
-0.034351

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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