When will Pete Hegseth cease to be the US secretary of defense?
Closed Sep 26, 2025 07:01AM UTC
US national security officials were on the defensive in late March 2025 after Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, revealed that he was mistakenly included on a group chat, including Hegseth, using the encrypted messaging service Signal regarding US strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen earlier in the month (CNN, USA Today, NBC News).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Not before 26 September 2025" with a closing date of 26 September 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 26 April 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 26 April 2025 and 25 June 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 26 June 2025 and 25 September 2025 | 1% | |
| Not before 26 September 2025 | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 144 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 586 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |