When will Michael Waltz cease to be the US national security advisor?
Closed May 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC
US national security officials were on the defensive in late March 2025 after Jeffrey Goldberg, editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, revealed that he was mistakenly included on a group chat, including Waltz, using the encrypted messaging service Signal regarding US strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen earlier in the month (CNN, USA Today, NBC News, The Hill).
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The question closed "Between 26 April 2025 and 25 June 2025" with a closing date of 1 May 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 26 April 2025 | 1% | |
| Between 26 April 2025 and 25 June 2025 | 25% | |
| Between 26 June 2025 and 25 September 2025 | 15% | |
| Not before 26 September 2025 | 59% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 58 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 123 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 198 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 284 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
