Before 2 August 2025, will a US federal court order the lifting of all restraining orders and/or injunctions issued by the District Court and/or Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ordering that no noncitizens be removed from the US under the authority of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798?

Started Mar 28, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 07, 2025 11:05PM UTC

On 15 March 2025, President Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to order the removal (aka deportation) of several putative members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua (TdA) criminal gang (WhiteHouse.gov, AP). Soon after, attorneys for certain putative members of TdA sought a temporary restraining order in the District Court for the District of Columbia barring the removal of their clients, which was granted (CBS News, The Hill, J.G.G. v. Trump - Complaint, Court Listener - J.G.G. v. Trump, Cornell - Restraining Order). If a court orders the lifting of all pertinent restraining orders and/or injunctions, but stays that order pending appeal, the question will remain open unless and until the stay is lifted and the order lifting, vacating, or otherwise overruling the restraining orders and/or injunctions is removed (Cornell - Stay of Proceedings). The question will close early upon the Supreme Court ordering a permanent injunction preventing the removal of any persons under the authority of the Alien Enemies Act. For the purposes of this question, a court or courts allowing all restraining orders and/or injunctions to expire without being replaced will count as an order lifting the same.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 7 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 49%
No 51%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 124
Number of Forecasts 30
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 285
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.19358
2.
-0.17358
3.
-0.17358
4.
-0.15578
5.
-0.14697

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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