Before 1 January 2026, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal of the Ninth Circuit's decision in Duncan v. Bonta regarding the State of California's ban on the possession of "large-capacity magazines" for firearms?

Started Mar 28, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
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In 2016, California voters approved Proposition 63, which, among other things, banned the possession of large-capacity magazines for firearms, those that hold more than 10 rounds (Ballotpedia - California Proposition 63). After a series of decisions at the district and circuit court levels, including a remand from the US Supreme Court, the Ninth Circuit ruled 7-4 on 20 March 2025 that the state's ban did not violate the Second Amendment (AP, Duncan v. Bonta - Ninth Circuit Decision). The California Rifle & Pistol Association, which is party to the lawsuit, stated that it will "seek review from the Supreme Court immediately" (California Rifle & Pistol Association). The question is only concerned with whether the US Supreme Court will agree to hear the case. An order vacating the Ninth Circuit's decision and remanding again for further proceedings will count (e.g., Supreme Court - Order List 30 June 2022, see 21-1194 on page 2).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 14%
No 86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.078365
3.
-0.07218
4.
-0.028741
5.
-0.011791

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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