At close of business on 19 June 2025, will the most recently announced Bank of England (BoE) "Bank Rate" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 8 May 2025?

Started Mar 28, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 19, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, the interest paid to commercial banks that hold money with the BoE (Bank of England - Bank Rate). As of the launch of this question, the MPC's June 2025 monetary policy meeting announcement is scheduled for 19 June 2025, and its most recently announced Bank Rate was 4.50% (Bank of England - Monetary Policy Summary, March 2025, Bank of England - Monetary Policy Committee Calendar). If the BoE announces a range, the question will close using the midpoint of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 2.00% and 2.25% would close based on 2.125%). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Same" with a closing date of 19 June 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower 11%
Same 88%
Higher 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.085416
3.
-0.084482
4.
-0.076523
5.
-0.043919

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username