Kinnaj asks:

Before 5 September 2025, will proponents seeking the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom submit enough signatures to force a recall election, according to the California Secretary of State?

Started Apr 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 05, 2025 07:01AM UTC

On 28 March 2025, the California Secretary of State announced that the office "approved petitions for circulation for the recall of Governor Gavin Newsom," with the proponents needing to gather 1,311,963 valid signatures to "qualify the recall" (California Secretary of State - Memorandum 28 March 2025, California Globe). The question will be suspended on 4 September 2025 if still open and the outcome determined by reports and announcements from the California Secretary of State. The sufficiency and eligibility of the signatures must be confirmed by the California Secretary of State to count. If the California Secretary of State announces an extension of the deadline to collect signatures beyond 4 September 2025, the question will close "No" (e.g., California Secretary of State).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.009903
2.
-0.009744
3.
-0.009732
4.
-0.009703
5.
-0.009696

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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