When will US total nonfarm private payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month, according to ADP?
Closed Jul 01, 2025 02:00PM UTC
The US private sector has continued to create jobs amid various economic headwinds (CNBC, Investopedia - ADP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data from the firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Persons"). Subsequent revisions will be immaterial.
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The question closed "Between April 2025 and June 2025" with a closing date of 1 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Between April 2025 and June 2025 | 35% | |
| Between July 2025 and September 2025 | 39% | |
| Between October 2025 and December 2025 | 19% | |
| Not before January 2026 | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 17 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 159 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 63 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 472 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
